Working for Singularity University itself a decade ago, and monitoring a lot of technological and social changes and upheavals since then, I've come to a very different set of conclusions about human progress than Tim Urban's Wait But Why.
I've perhaps fallen more into the John Gray than Steven Pinker camp on this one. But everywhere I've observed so-called "abundance", I've witnessed scarcity merely shifting somewhere else or changing form. Every time I've been tempted to believe in an ever-accumulating knowledge and wisdom of our species, I've discovered more and more concrete examples of how so-called "primitive" societies knew things that modern man has completely forgotten and is clueless to remember today.
Which isn't to say I'm a doomer. I'm just more of a finite systems thinker. One who believes we forget, often intentionally, at least as much as we learn. How our minds atrophy in a kind of biological garbage collection so that our dendrites might be consumed instead by the new fads of a new time. Human progress thus becomes more a rearranging of the furniture than some grand capitalistic orgy of infinite exponential expansion.
I do like the surfboard analogy, as it relinquishes greater control to forces beyond ourselves and requires us to work within their larger energy waves. But cognitive debt is pretty much a requirement for our broader social adoption of AI in any meaningful way, for example. Children need to learn the value of unlearning.
This is a fascinating reply Swag, thanks. On balance I'm more Gray than I am Pinker, too. I think that probably comes as a surprise to you, but there we are. Gray's criticisms of the presiding idea of liberalism — the idea, that is, that we are all moving towards some kind of Universal Civilisation that looks something like modern western liberal democracy — has been a huge influence on me.
I'm more worried about the children of the underclass: smothered in addictions and compulsions, bereft of any discipline or useful education, and immersed in a treacly mixture of fake positivity, political tolerance (but only for certain specific categories), and therapy-speak. I imagine that your children will be okay, no matter what you tell them. I wish some upper-class people would spare a thought as to the effects of the system they've constructed on poorer people. For many, they have no fathers, no opportunities, no conception of virtue... And in return we've given them some meagre dependency programs. Not enough to flourish but maybe enough to lease an SUV, if you work a cash job atop Section 8 and EBT. Behold, the progressive utopia.
The first step to flourish as a human in the age of AI is the same as in any other age: (1) have wealthy and well-educated parents (two married ones preferably).
Thank you for writing this with a positive, hopeful and practical stance.
There is so much fear-mongering out there at the moment - although much of it is shallow and click-baity.
As a mum of two (who teaches using
AI to other mums!) I am optimistic and we are already doing many of your suggestions in this article but I won't deny that I am also concerned for my kids future. For instance: What will the world look like with more robots in it than humans? And that too super intelligent ones! Will humans lose control to them? Is there a kill-switch to this all in that event? I'm glad to say these are still fleeting thoughts and don't (yet) keep me up at night.
Musk said in one of his recent talks that optimism is the only thing that will maintain your quality of life in this future we are racing into; he said 'you rather err on the side of optimism and be wrong or be pessimistic and be right. I choose optimism and articles like this one are super helpful in staying that course! Thank you, David!
Working for Singularity University itself a decade ago, and monitoring a lot of technological and social changes and upheavals since then, I've come to a very different set of conclusions about human progress than Tim Urban's Wait But Why.
I've perhaps fallen more into the John Gray than Steven Pinker camp on this one. But everywhere I've observed so-called "abundance", I've witnessed scarcity merely shifting somewhere else or changing form. Every time I've been tempted to believe in an ever-accumulating knowledge and wisdom of our species, I've discovered more and more concrete examples of how so-called "primitive" societies knew things that modern man has completely forgotten and is clueless to remember today.
Which isn't to say I'm a doomer. I'm just more of a finite systems thinker. One who believes we forget, often intentionally, at least as much as we learn. How our minds atrophy in a kind of biological garbage collection so that our dendrites might be consumed instead by the new fads of a new time. Human progress thus becomes more a rearranging of the furniture than some grand capitalistic orgy of infinite exponential expansion.
I do like the surfboard analogy, as it relinquishes greater control to forces beyond ourselves and requires us to work within their larger energy waves. But cognitive debt is pretty much a requirement for our broader social adoption of AI in any meaningful way, for example. Children need to learn the value of unlearning.
This is a fascinating reply Swag, thanks. On balance I'm more Gray than I am Pinker, too. I think that probably comes as a surprise to you, but there we are. Gray's criticisms of the presiding idea of liberalism — the idea, that is, that we are all moving towards some kind of Universal Civilisation that looks something like modern western liberal democracy — has been a huge influence on me.
Bookmarked. Thanks for your valuable article! Lots of ah-ah moments. 😊 🙏
Thanks for reading Dino!
I'm more worried about the children of the underclass: smothered in addictions and compulsions, bereft of any discipline or useful education, and immersed in a treacly mixture of fake positivity, political tolerance (but only for certain specific categories), and therapy-speak. I imagine that your children will be okay, no matter what you tell them. I wish some upper-class people would spare a thought as to the effects of the system they've constructed on poorer people. For many, they have no fathers, no opportunities, no conception of virtue... And in return we've given them some meagre dependency programs. Not enough to flourish but maybe enough to lease an SUV, if you work a cash job atop Section 8 and EBT. Behold, the progressive utopia.
The first step to flourish as a human in the age of AI is the same as in any other age: (1) have wealthy and well-educated parents (two married ones preferably).
https://jmpolemic.substack.com/p/were-getting-weaker-part-1
James, thanks for reading. If I meet any wealthy people in future, I'll pass this on.
Thank you for writing this with a positive, hopeful and practical stance.
There is so much fear-mongering out there at the moment - although much of it is shallow and click-baity.
As a mum of two (who teaches using
AI to other mums!) I am optimistic and we are already doing many of your suggestions in this article but I won't deny that I am also concerned for my kids future. For instance: What will the world look like with more robots in it than humans? And that too super intelligent ones! Will humans lose control to them? Is there a kill-switch to this all in that event? I'm glad to say these are still fleeting thoughts and don't (yet) keep me up at night.
Musk said in one of his recent talks that optimism is the only thing that will maintain your quality of life in this future we are racing into; he said 'you rather err on the side of optimism and be wrong or be pessimistic and be right. I choose optimism and articles like this one are super helpful in staying that course! Thank you, David!